you have a brain, so you have opinions. you do not need much knowledge to form one.
ask someone about a subject they know little about and you may get a firm answer. they pay nothing for talking and can forget the take a week later.
put money behind the opinion and you lose something when you are wrong. spend years working on one problem and you risk years of your time.
if you think you rank in the top 1% of a field, trade that information. on a prediction market, you buy an outcome when other traders price it below your estimate.
you make money when you read the outcome right and lose it when you read the outcome wrong. you cannot hide from the result.
you can apply the same standard to work. give one plan enough time to produce a result, even when a new idea looks more fun. if you switch before you get a result, you lose the chance to build on what you learned.
i pay more attention to a person who has to live with the outcome.
~ articulated using Alma